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Coping with global warming under stock growth uncertainty in marine social-ecological systems: The European sardine fishery

José-María Da-Rocha, María-José Gutiérrez, Sebastian Villasante. 2012.

Abstract:

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our model results show that in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit levels.

Keywords: Global warming, stock growth uncertainty, European sardine fishery, Transitional dynamics, marine social-ecological systems

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