Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems

Variable flows of food, water, or other ecosystem services complicate planning. Management strategies that decrease variability and increase predictabilitymay therefore be preferred. However, actions to decrease variance over short timescales (2–4 y), when applied continuously,may lead to long-termecosystem changes with adverse consequences. We investigated the effects of managing short-term variance in three well-understood models of ecosystem services: lake eutrophication, harvest of a wild population, and…

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