In this paper we set up a model to consider how individual voter characteristics determine their policy preferences over the level of a tax on fossil energy. We introduce the possibility for voters to invest to change their reliance on fossil versus clean energy. The effect of this on preferred tax rates are, in general, ambiguous. If a tax would be high enough to make…
Publication Author: Johan Gars
Speech-based measurement of polarization using text-as-data
Political polarization research depends on valid measurement of policy positions, yet established data sources—roll-call votes, elite surveys, ex- pert judgments—are limited in temporal coverage and substantive scope. Parliamentary speech offers an alternative: abundant, publicly available text that reflects real-time political positioning across all policy debates. However, whether speech-based measures recover the same latent con- structs as survey instruments remains an open empirical question, partic- ularly…
How framing and crisis saliency can reshape political coalitions: evidence from a cross-country experiment
How does different policy motivation framing affect broad public support for climate-related policies and is there a link to crisis saliency? Using a preregistered survey experiment conducted in six European countries, we randomly assign respondents to evaluate identical policy proposals introduced with either a climate-mitigation framing or an energy-security framing. We classify respondents according to the societal crisis they consider most important (give priority to) to capture differences in crisis salience. We find no significant average difference in policy support depending on which…
Political framing for climate policy support
Effective climate mitigation requires policy interventions such as pricing greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, public resistance, especially toward tax-based measures, limits political action. While prior research highlights factors shaping climate-policy support, it often overlooks systematic differences across ideological groups. This study investigates how political ideology and partisan framing influence support for climate policies in Sweden. Using a survey experiment with frames derived from real political debates…
Assessing the impacts of oil sanctions on Russia
This paper evaluates the effects of the two most important oil sanctions imposed on Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine—the EU import embargo and the G7 price cap. Using data on prices, discounts, trade patterns and transport, and based on previous research, we assess these sanctions’ individual and combined impacts. We conclude that the import embargo has likely been the most consequential sanction, reducing…
Approximately optimal forest rotation in a nonstationary environment
The problem of optimal forest rotation in a nonstationary environment can, in general, not be solved analytically. Even qualitatively characterizing how the solution changes over time is only possible in some special cases. In this paper, we consider an approximation of the true solution to the nonstationary problem. We derive an approximate harvesting rule by solving a sequence of stationary problems that assume the growth…
The black paradox
We model competition between an oil monopolist and competitive suppliers of coal and renewable energy in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We show that market power— which disrupts the order of extraction—may lead to higher long-run emissions by encouraging early extraction of dirty fuels such as coal which would otherwise remain in the ground permanently; simply banning coal burning may be better than Pigovian taxation….
The effect of European fuel-tax cuts on the oil income of Russia
European fuel tax cuts will lead to significant income transfers to Russia, thus undermining the Union’s sanction efforts against the country. EU politicians should instead consider alternative policies, such as direct income transfers to households, if they want to shield citizens from increased fuel prices without benefiting Russia.
What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis?
The coronavirus pandemic has led many countries to initiate unprecedented economic recovery packages. Policymakers tackling the coronavirus crisis have also been encouraged to prioritize policies which help mitigate a second, looming crisis: climate change. We identify and analyze policies that combat both the coronavirus crisis and the climate crisis. We analyze both the long-run climate impacts from coronavirus-related economic recovery policies, and the impacts of…
Carbon pricing and planetary boundaries
Human activities are threatening to push the Earth system beyond its planetary boundaries, risking catastrophic and irreversible global environmental change. Action is urgently needed, yet well-intentioned policies designed to reduce pressure on a single boundary can lead, through economic linkages, to aggravation of other pressures. In particular, the potential policy spillovers from an increase in the global carbon price onto other critical Earth system processes…