Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019)

Polycrisis has emerged as a new property of the Anthropocene. Defined as the convergence of crises across multiple systems, polycrisis calls for a paradigm shift in how crises are perceived and managed. Characterizing polycrisis dynamics is the first step in that direction but is made difficult by the complex and non-linear mechanisms at play. To overcome this challenge, we adopt a social-ecological systems approach to decompose polycrisis dynamics into two interrelated processes: shocks – sudden events with noticeable impacts, and creeping changes – slow processes that have a potential significant impact on society or the biosphere. We then develop and analyse a harmonized database capturing the occurrence of six categories of shocks (climatic, geophysical, ecological, economic, technological, and conflict-related) across 175 countries between 1970 and 2019. Our analysis reveals a significant rise in shock co-occurrences until 2000, particularly at the intersection of conflict, climate, and technological disruptions. After 2000, co-occurrence began plateauing or declining in all regions, yet at different levels. Our findings highlight the importance of a regionalized and typologically nuanced approach to understanding polycrisis. Our work also paves the way to an integration of polycrisis theory and multi-hazard methodologies for developing a more effective and crisis management ecosystem.

Keywords: Anthropocene, biosphere, polycrisis, resilience, shocks, social-ecological systems

Delannoy, L., A. Verzier, B. A. Bastien-Olvera, F. Benra, M. Nyström, and P. S. Jørgensen. 2025. Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019). Global Sustainability 8:e24.