Urban heat in global cities and the role of nature-based solutions in mitigating future climate risks

Approximately eight billion people are living on Earth today with more than half (55%, ∼4.2 billion) living in cities—a proportion predicted to increase to 70% (∼6.6. billion) by 2050. As the human population grows, urban residents will face increasingly extreme temperatures under future climate change, which will affect human well-being, health, and mortality. However, nature-based solutions offer promising strategies to mitigate these impacts. Here, we analyst future projections of the maximum temperature of the warmest month, as a proxy for extreme heat exposure across 5646 cities in 218 countries. We show that by mid-century, this climate metric is projected to increase by an average of +1.7 °C (± 0.5 °C), with the largest increases (∼4 °C) projected to occur in mid-to-high latitude cities of Europe, North America, and Australia. We highlight the urgent need to adopt nature-based solutions to mitigate projected increases in urban heat and contribute to net-zero CO₂ emissions goals.

Keywords: climate change, climate exposure, climate risk, Global warming, human societies, urban areas, urban forests

Esperon-Rodriguez, M., R. V. Gallagher, J. Lenoir, V. L. Barradas, L. J. Beaumont, C. Calfapietra, P. Cariñanos, S. J. Livesley, T. Iungma, G. Manoli, R. M. Marchin, T. McPhearson, C. Messier, M. Nieuwenhuijsen, S. A. Power, P. D. Rymer, and M. G. Tjoelker. 2025. Urban heat in global cities and the role of nature-based solutions in mitigating future climate risks. Environmental Research: Climate 4(2):023001.