Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

Human actions are threatening the resilience and stability of Earth’s biosphere – the wafer-thin veil around Earth where life thrives. This has profound implications for the development of civilizations, say an international group of researchers in a report published for the first Nobel Prize Summit, a digital gathering to be held in April to discuss the state of the planet in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Humanity is now the dominant force of change on planet Earth,” according to the analysis published in Ambio, a journal of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

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“In a single human lifetime, largely since the 1950s, we have grossly simplified the biosphere, a system that has evolved over 3.8 billion years. Now just a few plants and animals dominate the land and oceans,” says lead author Carl Folke, director of the Beijer Institute and also chair of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

“Our actions are making the biosphere more fragile, less resilient and more prone to shocks than before”, he adds.

“The risks we are taking are astounding,” says co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the analysis.  “We are at the dawn of what must be a transformative decade. The Nobel Prize Summit is really the scientific community shouting “Wake Up!”

Making the biosphere more fragile

The report summarises recent research on the scale of human activity: “75% of Earth’s ice-free land is directly altered as a result of human activity, with nearly 90% of terrestrial net primary production and 80% of global tree cover under direct human influence.”

“Humanity must become effective planetary stewards. About 96% of all mammals by weight are us, H. Sapiens, and our livestock, or cattle, sheep and pigs.  Just 4% are wild mammals like elephants, buffalo or dolphins,” says Folke.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions means that “Within the coming 50 years one-to-three billion people are projected to experience living conditions that are outside of the climate conditions, which have served civilizations well over the past 6,000 years,” depending on how population and climate scenarios play out, according to the report’s summary.

Co-author Line Gordon, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre says,  “This is a decisive decade for humanity. In this decade we must bend the curves of greenhouse gas emissions and shocking biodiversity loss. This means transforming what we eat and how we farm it, among many other transformations.”

Barriers for progress

Instead of listing the well-known solutions such as wind power, solar or plant-based diets, the researchers tackle the barriers stopping progress. Two of the biggest barriers are unsustainable levels of inequality and technology that undermines societal goals. New narratives that reconnect development to the biosphere are in demand, say the authors.

The report concludes that inequality and environmental challenges are deeply linked. Reducing inequality will increase trust within societies. Trust is essential for governments to make long-term decisions, the report argues. Social media and access to reliable knowledge is also highlighted as a barrier to progress.

The risks of the next generation of technologies are brought into focus throughout the report.

Co-author Victor Galaz, the deputy director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and Beijer Institute theme leader says:  “As the pressure of human activities accelerates on Earth, so too does the hope that technologies such as artificial intelligence will be able to help us deal with dangerous climate and environmental change. That will only happen however, if we act forcefully in ways that redirects the direction of technological change towards planetary stewardship and responsible innovation.”

Our Planet, Our Future

The first Nobel Prize Summit, Our Planet, Our Future, a three-day digital event open to all, has been convened to provide a platform for scientists to discuss the state of the planet at a critical juncture for humanity. It will explore two urgent questions:

What can we learn from the global pandemic to reduce risk of future shocks?

And, what can be achieved in this decade to put the world on a path to a more sustainable, more prosperous future for all of humanity?

Read more and register here