Mapping the dynamics of the polycrisis

Polycrisis – or the convergence of crises across multiple systems – has come to be seen as a defining feature of the Anthropocene. But what are the different types of interacting crises, and do they always converge in the same locations and on the same scales? Recent research led by members of the 2024-2026 Beijer Young Scholars (BYS) cohort sheds light on polycrisis dynamics, in a way that can help us redefine how crises are perceived and managed.

In a study published in Global Sustainability, researchers traced the temporal trends, distribution and co-occurrences of shocks – sudden events with noticeable impacts – on 175 countries from 1970 to 2019. The study was led by Beijer Young Scholar (BYS) fellow Louis Delannoy (Global Economic Dynamics of the Biosphere at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences), together with BYS fellows Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera and Felipe Benra, as well as colleagues from GEDB and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The authors of the study found that shocks have not evolved uniformly over time and space, and that any effort to theorize, anticipate, or navigate polycrisis must account for this spatial heterogeneity.

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Understanding how, when and where shocks occur

The authors first present two interrelated process at the heart of polycrisis dynamics: shocks – sudden events with noticeable impacts, and creeping changes – slow processes that have a potential significant impact on society and the biosphere. The paper then dives deeper into shocks by presenting and analysing a database capturing the occurrence of six categories of shocks (climatic, geophysical, ecological, economic, technological and conflict-related) across 175 countries between 1970 and 2019.

The findings show that shocks have not followed the same path everywhere: from 1970 to 2000 they became more likely to occur together, but since then patterns have shifted in region-specific ways. This challenges the assumption of a globally uniform escalation of crisis entanglement, and calls for greater attention to the spatial specificity of polycrisis processes. The analysis also highlights the importance of disaggregating shocks by category and context, revealing that certain combinations recur more frequently and may signal structurally embedded vulnerabilities.

The study aims to be a step towards building a common empirical foundation for navigating polycrisis, informing both theoretical developments and practical approaches to adaptive governance.

Building knowledge through collaboration

The Beijer Young Scholars (BYS) Programme was started in 2012 with the aim of creating international network of early-career researchers and stimulating the emergence of new research paths and new ways of interdisciplinary collaboration on global sustainability topics. Conducting collaborative, integrative and interdisciplinary research is a time-consuming endeavour that is not always well recognised in the academic incentives system. One important aim of the BYS programme is to facilitate and provide space for such research. This paper started being developed after the latest cohort’s first workshop in May 2024. At the 2025 workshop, the group reflected further on the distinction between creeping changes and shocks, and how science can better navigate and inform a turbulent world.

The cohort built on the momentum of the previous year through and in-depth synthesis session on modelling interacting shocks. The session sparked rich discussion on the role of models in understanding slow variables such as values, language, and inequities, and how these interact with sudden shocks to shape system trajectories.

Delannoy, L., A. Verzier, B. A. Bastien-Olvera, F. Benra, M. Nyström, and P. S. Jørgensen. 2025. Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019). Global Sustainability 8:e24. 

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